English Premier League weekend best bets

Following a two-week international break, the English Premier League is set to return this weekend.

And while there isn’t necessarily a marquee match of note – the highlight of the weekend is Manchester United/Leicester City at Old Trafford – I believe there’s still plenty of value to be had on the betting board.

So, before the Final Four tips off Saturday night, consider these two Premier League bets as a means of building the bankroll.

Best Bet #1 – Leeds United/Southampton Over 3 Goals (+105)

Both these teams like to get out in attack, pressure the opposition and play generally high-event games.

As a result, I’m expecting goals in this fixture. Since Jesse Marsch took over the top job at Leeds United, its attack has played brilliantly. It has notched at least two expected goals in three of four matches, including two straight times against Norwich City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Goals should come quite easily for the Peacocks, especially considering how bad Southampton’s defense has played away from home. The Saints have conceded the third-most expected goals away from home this season, ahead of only Leeds and cellar-dwellers Norwich City. In fact, manager Ralph Hassenhutl’s side has kept only one team under one expected goal through 14 road fixtures this season.

Plus, Leeds could be in for some positive offensive regression soon. This season, it has scored 34 goals on 39.5 expected and a good chunk of that discrepancy has come at home. At Elland Road, Leeds has scored 17 times on 22 expected goals, per fbref.com.

All that said, this Southampton attack has played quite well of late and should contribute to the total Saturday. It has created at least one expected goal in four of its last five overall and four of five away from home. Given it notched 2.3 xG in the reverse fixture against Leeds, expect another strong performance from the Saints.

Best Bet #2 – Manchester United/Leicester City Over 3 Goals (-115)

Much like Leeds United and Southampton, these teams don’t like playing much defense.

History backs that statement up too as three straight meetings between these sides have featured at least three goals, including a 4-2 Leicester City victory at the King Power Stadium that saw the sides combine for 4.5 expected goals.

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The duality with this play exciting me is that United’s attack has played very well at home while Leicester has struggled to defend on the road. The Red Devils have notched at least one expected goal in five straight at Old Trafford and at least two expected goals in three of the last four, per fbref.com.


Manchester United practice.
Manchester United’s top team practicing.


On the flip-side, Leicester has conceded the seventh-most road expected goals this season and has allowed at least two xG in three straight road fixtures against Big Six opposition. Further, it hasn’t held a top-half opponent to fewer than two goals away from home this season.

That said, United’s defense has given opportunities to top-half EPL attacks lately. In its last four fixtures against such sides, it has conceded at least one expected goal in all four.

As a result, expect participation from both sides in what I think proves another high-scoring affair.

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